Bookmaking

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 — Analysis & Prediction

Date: 28.12.2025

Author: RiskTop

UFC 323 is finally here. Merab Dvalishvili steps back into the Octagon to defend his title against Petr Yan.

Fight Summary

Dvalishvili's wrestling volume is just overwhelming. He averages over 6 takedowns per fight with a success rate pushing 40%.
Yan is the cleaner striker, connecting on 60% of his shots.

But stats only tell half the story. This fight is going to be a mental grind. In their first meeting, Merab drowned Yan with pure volume. The "grind style" worked perfectly. This time? Yan looks different. His camp footage suggests a higher striking output and significantly more aggression.

Tale of the Tape

Feature	Merab Dvalishvili	Petr Yan
Age	34	32
Height	168 cm	170 cm
Weight	135 lbs (61 kg)	135 lbs (61 kg)
Reach	173 cm	170 cm
Stance	Orthodox	Switch
Sig. Str. LPM	4.33	5.12
TD Avg	6.40	1.58
TD Accuracy	37.8%	48.2%

Anyone looking at this table knows the drill:

Tactical Analysis

Merab Dvalishvili

The Plan: It is simple—take it to the mat.
Pace: Expect him to push the pace mid-round and pin Yan against the cage.
Cardio: His gas tank is arguably the best in the weight class.

Petr Yan

Striking: More precise on the feet and a master of combinations.
Distance: Needs disciplined distance control this time around.
Win Condition: If Yan can keep this fight standing in the center of the Octagon, Merab is in serious trouble.

Key Detail: Everyone knows Merab’s game plan: chain wrestle until the other guy breaks. But stopping it is a whole different problem. Yan will likely rely on the "sprawl and counter-elbow" game to break the chain.

The Betting Angle

The betting markets are buzzing for this one. The odds tell a specific story:

Dvalishvili: -475
Yan: +340

The gap shows the organization's clear favorite, but this is MMA—one mistake changes everything.

Extra Notes:

Aljamain Sterling was active in Merab’s camp for this preparation.
Yan spent his camp at Tiger Muay Thai, where the focus was clearly on defending leg kicks and takedowns.

Prediction

Merab is the favorite for a reason. He dictates where the fight takes place.

However, Yan looks sharper and hungrier this time. If Petr can stuff the takedowns and win the boxing exchanges early, the momentum shifts completely.

✅ My call: Dvalishvili by Unanimous Decision.

That said, counting out Petr Yan is always a risk. He only needs one clean shot to end the night.